A millennial perspective on Arctic warming from <sup>14</sup>C in quartz and plants emerging from beneath ice caps
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Observational records show that the area of ice caps on northern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada has diminished by more than 50% since 1958. Fifty 14 C dates on dead vegetation emerging beneath receding ice margins document the persistence of some of these ice caps since at least 350 AD. In situ cosmogenic 14 C in rock surfaces, and 14 C in plant macrofossils from lake‐sediment cores demonstrate that the plateau remained ice‐free through the middle Holocene, but has supported ice caps for more than 2000 of the past 2800 years. The rapid disappearance of these ice caps over the past century, despite decreasing summer insolation, further demonstrates the unusual character of 20th Century warmth. Widespread ice‐cap expansion ∼1280 AD early in the Little Ice Age, and intensified expansion ∼1450 AD, coincide with peak stratospheric volcanic aerosol loading and reduced solar luminosity, suggesting that these mechanisms may have initiated ice‐cap growth, subsequently maintained by strong positive feedbacks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".