Inference and decision analysis based on imprecise probability and likelihoods
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The authors consider the implementation of Dempster-Shafer theory in inference and decision making. Decision analysis must often be implemented in civil engineering applications even though the supporting information is very weak. Imprecise probability seeks to more faithfully represent the uncertainties under these conditions. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) approach to inference and decision analysis is, retrospectively, an implementation of this concept. D-S theory provides a simple inference scheme which utilizes conventional likelihoods as input. This produces an expected utility interval for each decision alternative. The size of this interval is a reflection of the weakness of the information on which the analysis is based and reduces the ability to distinguish between decision alternatives.>
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.021 | 0.078 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.009 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".