Railway passenger train delay prediction via neural network model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
SUMMARY The aim of this paper is to present an artificial neural network model with high accuracy to predict the delay of passenger trains in Iranian Railways. In the proposed model, we use three different methods to define inputs including normalized real number, binary coding, and binary set encoding inputs. One of the great challenges of using neural network is how to design a superior network for a specific task. To find an appropriate architecture, three different strategies called quick method, dynamic method, and multiple method are investigated. To prevent the proposed model from overfitting in modeling, according to cross validation, we divide existing passenger train delays data set into three subsets called training set, validation set, and testing set. To evaluate the proposed model, we compare the results of three different data input methods and three different architectures with each other and with some common prediction methods such as decision tree and multinomial logistic regression. For comparing different neural networks, we consider training time and accuracy of neural networks on test data set and network size. In addition, for comparing neural networks with other well‐known prediction methods, we consider training time and the accuracy of neural network on test data sets. To make a fair comparison among all models, we sketch a time‐accuracy graph. The results revealed that the proposed model has higher accuracy. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".