Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This paper evaluates the international spillover effects of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) using an estimated two-country dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with nominal and real rigidities and portfolio balance effects. Portfolio balance effects arise from imperfect substitutability between short- and long-term bond portfolios in each country, as well as between domestic and foreign bonds within these portfolios. We show that LSAPs in the United States lower long-term yields and stimulate economic activity not only in the United States, but also in the rest of the world (ROW) economy. This occurs despite the currency appreciation in the ROW and the resulting deterioration in their trade balance. The key for this result is the decline in the ROW term premia through the portfolio balance channel, as the relative demand for ROW long-term bonds increases following an LSAP in the United States. Our model indicates that US asset purchases that generate the same output effect as US conventional monetary policy has larger international spillovers due to stronger portfolio balance effects. We also show that international openness in financial markets reduces the stimulatory effects of LSAPs in the originating country, while increasing their international spillover effects.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".