Inference About the First-Order Autoregressive Coefficient
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Several estimators of the coefficient of an AR(1) process can be expressed as the ratio of two quadratic forms. In this article, we are considering the ordinary least-squares, a modified least-squares, the Yule–Walker, and Burg's estimators. It will be shown that the modified least-squares estimator is the least biased and that the ordinary least-squares and Burg's estimators share very similar distributional properties. An integral representation of the moments of these estimators is provided and a methodology is proposed for correcting their bias. Bounds for the supports of the Yule–Walker and Burg's estimators are determined and the density functions of those estimators are then approximated in terms of Jacobi polynomials. Finally, confidence intervals for the autoregressive coefficient are determined from replicated series.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it