Carotenoid ornamentation of adult male Common Redpolls predicts probability of dying in a salmonellosis outbreak
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Summary Conditional handicap models of sexual selection predict that ornamentation should be positively associated with an individual's ability to withstand challenges to their health. We assessed whether levels of carotenoid ornamentation were related to the probability of adult male Common Redpolls, Carduelis flammea , dying in a salmonellosis epidemic by comparing the ornamentation of surviving adult male redpolls to those found dead. Hosts suffering from salmonellosis shed bacteria in faeces, and new individuals are typically infected when they ingest faeces‐contaminated food. The proportion of adult males in the sample of dead birds was significantly higher than in the sample of living birds. Among adult males, probability of survival was significantly predicted by the expression of their carotenoid signals: brightly ornamented adult males were more likely to die in the epidemic. A probable hypothesis for these results is that if carotenoid ornamentation in redpolls functions as a status badge of dominance, bright males would have had priority access to highly preferred, and contaminated, food patches.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".