A study of the reduction of the regional aggregated wind power forecast error by spatial smoothing effects in the Maritime Canada
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper discusses the accuracy of the prediction of aggregated wind power of planned wind farms distributed in the Maritime Canada. Especially this study calculates and analyzes the aggregated regional wind power forecast error compared to single sites. Using simulated measured wind power and expected wind power from 5 planned wind farms, this research finds that the reduction of the ensemble wind power forecast error depends on the size of the region. To generate these findings, the spatial correlation function of prediction error is applied to calculate the ensemble wind forecast error based on arbitrary configurations of wind farms and wind generations, as long as the total installed wind capacity is a fixed number for selected planned wind farms. The validation of the spatial smoothing effects will provide the Maritime utilities an alternative method to reduce the regional aggregated wind power forecast errors instead of using costly wind prediction system.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it