Using confidence intervals to compare several correlated areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The performance of a diagnostic tool yielding quantitative or ordinal measurements is often assessed in terms of its area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). As new diagnostic tools are constantly being developed, a frequently occurring task is to compare multiple AUCs as derived from the same group of subjects. For this purpose, previous methods have usually used an omnibus chi-square test, which may not be very informative. We present here methods for comparing several correlated AUCs using simultaneous confidence intervals. To improve small sample properties, we adopt the method of variance estimates recovery in which confidence limits for each AUC are obtained on the basis of the logit and inverse hyperbolic sine transformations. A simulation study demonstrates the superior performance of the proposed approach. The methods are illustrated with two examples.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.107 | 0.407 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.011 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".