Dendroclimatic inference of wildfire activity in Quebec over the 20th century and implications for natural disturbance-based forest management at the northern limit of the commercial forest
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We examined the fire–climate relationship at the northern limit of commercial forest in western Quebec, a region where forest management is currently competing with fires for mature stands. The main objective was to determine if a particular climate signal would control the fire activity in this region when compared with other parts of the Quebec boreal forest. We used 500-hPa spatial correlation maps to compare the atmospheric patterns associated with the annual area burned (AAB) in the study area, the entire province of Quebec, the intensive (southern Quebec), and the restricted (northern Quebec) fire management zones. Next, dendroclimatic analyses were used to obtain tree-ring estimates of the AAB back to 1904 and to investigate the temporal stability of the fire–climate relationship. The climate controls associated with the AAB of the study area are intermediate between those associated with the AAB of the intensive and restricted fire management zones. The 500-hPa correlation patterns for the 1948–71 and 1972–2001 periods were relatively stable through time for the study area and for the restricted fire management zone. Our results provide a plausible mechanism for explaining the link between sea surface temperature and regional fire activity established in previous studies. They also provide information complementary to the Canadian fire danger rating system that uses daily weather data.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".