High microcystin concentrations occur only at low nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios in nutrient-rich Canadian lakes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Although the cyanobacterial toxin microcystin has been detected in Canadian fresh waters, little is known about its prevalence on a national scale. Here, we report for the first time on microcystin in 246 water bodies across Canada based on 3474 analyses. Over the last 10 years, microcystins were detected in every province, often exceeding maximum guidelines for potable and recreational water quality. Microcystins were virtually absent from unproductive systems and were increasingly common in nutrient-rich waters. The probable risk of microcystin concentrations exceeding water quality guidelines was greatest when the ratio of nitrogen (N) to phosphorus (P) was low and rapidly decreased at higher N:P ratios. Maximum concentrations of microcystins occurred in hypereutrophic lakes at mass ratios of N:P below 23. Our models may prove to be useful screening tools for identifying potentially toxic “hotspots” or “hot times” of unacceptable microcystin levels. A future scientific challenge will be to determine whether there is any causal link between N:P ratios and microcystin concentrations, as this may have important implications for the management of eutrophied lakes and reservoirs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".