A Probabilistic Capital Budgeting Model for New Product Development under Stage-Gate Process
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Stage-gate model for new product development (NPD) and for any research and development (R&D) project consists of a series of stages and gates; each stage is a set of research activities and gates are milestones at which decisions are made based on predetermined criteria. In this paper we developed a capital budgeting model for a typical 5-stage, 5-gate process to be used for appraising commercial viability of the NPD at Stage 2 which will serve as one of the decision making criterion at Gate 3. Because in an NPD project, completion costs (capital investments), completion times, and future cash flows are uncertain, we developed the Pert-Beta probability distribution to encounter for the randomness of these variables. Furthermore, we suggested the model can be applied to real case NPD projects with the Monte Carlo Simulation approach. We then verified the workability of the model by applying it to a notional NPD project and demonstrated that all decision variables reach steady state in the Monte Carlo Simulation calculations.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it