Validity of the Prodromal Risk Syndrome for First Psychosis: Findings From the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Treatment and prevention studies over the past decade have enrolled patients believed to be at risk for future psychosis. These patients were considered at risk for psychosis by virtue of meeting research criteria derived from retrospective accounts of the psychosis prodrome. This study evaluated the diagnostic validity of the prospective "prodromal risk syndrome" construct. Patients assessed by the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes as meeting criteria of prodromal syndromes (n = 377) from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study were compared with normal comparison (NC, n = 196), help-seeking comparison (HSC, n = 198), familial high-risk (FHR, n = 40), and schizotypal personality disorder (SPD, n = 49) groups. Comparisons were made on variables from cross-sectional demographic, symptom, functional, comorbid diagnostic, and family history domains of assessment as well as on follow-up outcome. Prodromal risk syndrome patients as a group were robustly distinguished from NC subjects across all domains and distinguished from HSC subjects and from FHR subjects on most measures in many of these domains. Adolescent and young adult SPD patients, while distinct from prodromal patients on definitional grounds, were similar to prodromals on multiple measures, consistent with SPD in young patients possibly being an independent risk syndrome for psychosis. The strong evidence of diagnostic validity for the prodromal risk syndrome for first psychosis raises the question of its evaluation for inclusion in Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fifth Edition).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".