Les principales caractéristiques du cycle économique et de la croissance tendancielle au Liban
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Cet article montre que les caractéristiques des cycles économiques et de la croissance tendancielle au Liban se sont modifiées sur la période 1970-2009. Avant 1990, date marquant la fin du conflit qui a débuté en 1975, les phases d’expansion enregistrent une durée plus longue que les phases de récession et les amplitudes cycliques sont très importantes par rapport à ce que l’on peut constater après la fin de la guerre. En effet, à partir de 1996, la durée des phases de récession est supérieure ou égale à celle des phases d’expansion et le PIB fluctue faiblement autour de sa tendance de long terme. En outre, sur la période étudiée, la croissance tendancielle affiche un taux faiblement positif et le PIB observé revient vers sa tendance de long terme environ huit ans après la fin du conflit. Cela signifie qu’un choc exogène n’a qu’un effet transitoire sur le PIB libanais. On constate, par conséquent, un phénomène de persistance du choc.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".