Incidence and natural history of ulcerative colitis in the Uppsala Region of Sweden 2005–2009 — Results from the IBD Cohort of the Uppsala Region (ICURE)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The incidence of ulcerative colitis (UC) increased during the 20th century in Western Europe and the North America, but there are conflicting reports whether the incidence has declined, stabilized or continued to increase. The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence of UC in the Uppsala Region, Sweden. METHODS: All new UC patients in Uppsala County (305,381 inhabitants) were prospectively registered during 2005-2006 and the same for all new UC patients in the Uppsala Region (642,117 inhabitants) during 2007-2009. The extent and severity of disease according to the Montreal classification, relapse rates and surgery were assessed. RESULTS: 526 UC patients were included. The mean overall incidence for the time period was 20.0 (95% CI: 16.1-23.9) cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The incidence among children <17 years of age was 8.9 per 100,000. The extent at diagnosis was evenly distributed (E1: n=167, 32%, E2: n=161, 31%, E3: n=163, 31%). Half of the cases had moderate to severe symptoms (S1: n=269, 51%, S2: n=209, 40%, S3: n=45, 8.6%). 228 (43%) relapsed and 13 (2.5%) required colectomy during the first year. Children had a higher proportion of extensive disease vs adults (27/42 vs 136/484), but no increased risk for severe symptoms or colectomy. CONCLUSION: In this prospective population-based study we found one of the highest incidences of UC in the world. The proportion of severe cases is comparable with historical data. The conclusion is that the nature of UC has not changed, only the incidence.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".