Robust portfolio selection based on a joint ellipsoidal uncertainty set
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
‘Separable’ uncertainty sets have been widely used in robust portfolio selection models (e.g. see [E. Erdoğan, D. Goldfarb, and G. Iyengar, Robust portfolio management, manuscript, Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, Columbia University, New York, 2004; D. Goldfarb and G. Iyengar, Robust portfolio selection problems, Math. Oper. Res. 28 (2003), pp. 1–38; R.H. Tütüncü and M. Koenig, Robust asset allocation, Ann. Oper. Res. 132 (2004), pp. 157–187]). For these uncertainty sets, each type of uncertain parameter (e.g. mean and covariance) has its own uncertainty set. As addressed in [Z. Lu, A new cone programming approach for robust portfolio selection, Tech. Rep., Department of Mathematics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, 2006; Z. Lu, A computational study on robust portfolio selection based on a joint ellipsoidal uncertainty set, Math. Program. (2009), DOI: 10.1007/510107-009-0271-z], these ‘separable’ uncertainty sets typically share two common properties: (1) their actual confidence level, namely, the probability of uncertain parameters falling within the uncertainty set, is unknown, and it can be much higher than the desired one; and (2) they are fully or partially box-type. The associated consequences are that the resulting robust portfolios can be too conservative, and moreover, they are usually highly non-diversified, as observed in the computational experiments conducted in [Z. Lu, A new cone programming approach for robust portfolio selection, Tech. Rep., Department of Mathematics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, 2006; Z. Lu, A computational study on robust portfolio selection based on a joint ellipsoidal uncertainty set, Math. Program. (2009), DOI: 10.1007/510107-009-0271-Z; R.H.Tütüncü and M. Koenig, Robust asset allocation, Ann. Oper. Res. 132 (2004), pp. 157–187]. To combat these drawbacks, we consider a factor model for random asset returns. For this model, we introduce a ‘joint’ ellipsoidal uncertainty set for the model parameters and show that it can be constructed as a confidence region associated with a statistical procedure applied to estimate the model parameters. We further show that the robust maximum risk-adjusted return (RMRAR) problem with this uncertainty set can be reformulated and solved as a cone programming problem. The computational results reported in [Z. Lu, A new cone programming approach for robust portfolio selection, Tech. Rep., Department of Mathematics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, 2006; Z. Lu, A computational study on robust portfolio selection based on a joint ellipsoidal uncertainty set, Math. Program. (2009), DOI: 10.1007/510107-009-0271-Z] demonstrate that the robust portfolio determined by the RMRAR model with our ‘joint’ uncertainty set outperforms that with Goldfarb and Iyengar’s ‘separable’ uncertainty set proposed in the seminal paper [D. Goldfarb and G. Iyengar, Robust portfolio selection problems, Math. Oper. Res. 28 (2003), pp. 1–38] in terms of wealth growth rate and transaction cost; moreover, our robust portfolio is fairly diversified, but Goldfarb and Iyengar’s is surprisingly highly non-diversified.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it