Markov Decision Processes with Arbitrary Reward Processes
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We consider a learning problem where the decision maker interacts with a standard Markov decision process, with the exception that the reward functions vary arbitrarily over time. We show that, against every possible realization of the reward process, the agent can perform as well—in hindsight—as every stationary policy. This generalizes the classical no-regret result for repeated games. Specifically, we present an efficient online algorithm—in the spirit of reinforcement learning—that ensures that the agent's average performance loss vanishes over time, provided that the environment is oblivious to the agent's actions. Moreover, it is possible to modify the basic algorithm to cope with instances where reward observations are limited to the agent's trajectory. We present further modifications that reduce the computational cost by using function approximation and that track the optimal policy through infrequent changes.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.049 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it