Survival Analysis on the Timing of Foreign Banks into China from the Aspect of Traditional Real Option
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Foreign Banks are becoming more important to China as China’s banking opens more. China needs to know all aspects of foreign bank’s entry, but researches about the timing are few. According to the theoretical and empirical analysis, foreign banks in China have some monopoly power on their customer in the past and in the future. Therefore traditional real option theory can be used to analyze the timing. This article examines the entry timing of all foreign banks into China from 1978 using survival analysis under real option theory. The empirical model certifies that the entry timing is consistent with real option theory, but at the same time, it presents its own characteristics: policy is very important to the timing; although the uncertainty from the market delays the entry timing, but the delay is weakened by the attractive repay; powerful banks may enter earlier, but at the same time, they are not eager to enter because they have more delayability. China’s authority can affect the timing of foreign banks’ expanding in China through its influence on uncertainty, irreversibility, delayability and current cash flow.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".