A varve record of increased ‘Little Ice Age’ rainfall associated with volcanic activity, Arctic Archipelago, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Varved sediments from Nicolay Lake, Canadian High Arctic, record major summer rainfall events over the last five centuries. Increased incidences of summer rainfall occurred during the coldest periods of the ‘Little Ice Age’ and were strongly clustered in the years immediately following major volcanic events. Comparison of the summer rainfall and proxy air temperature records thus provides a fuller understanding of the nature and causes of natural climate variability in the Arctic. Study of the synoptic conditions associated with the two most recent large summer rainfall events suggests that they are associated with the incursion of cold low-pressure systems from the Arctic Ocean Basin. Volcanic activity may produce atmospheric conditions more conducive to the formation of such low-pressure systems, which generate rainfall at low elevations and summer snowfall at higher elevations, thus explaining the correlation between rainfall and summer snow accumulation recorded in ice cores from high-elevation ice caps.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".