Polar Bear Distribution and Habitat Association Reflect Long-term Changes in Fall Sea Ice Conditions in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) is considered an indicator species of ecosystem health because of its longevity, life-history requirements, reliance on sea ice (i.e., sea ice obligate), and position in the Arctic food web. Polar bear distribution and habitat association should both be reliable signals for environmental perturbation, as the bears respond behaviorally to changes in sea ice extent, the timing and duration of ice formation, and ablation. Polar bears and sea ice conditions were monitored as part of the annual fall bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) aerial survey in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea between 1979 and 2005. Habitats associated with polar bear sightings changed during the study, with fewer bears associated with ice (irrespective of ice type and percent) and more bears associated with land and open water. Large-scale differences were documented for both ice type and percent ice cover, particularly in September. In general, the pattern in September (and to a lesser extent in October) included a reduction in old ice and a concomitant increase in open water. In addition, there was an eastward and landward shift in polar bear sightings. From 1979 to 1987, polar bears were observed primarily on ice along the shelf break near Barrow, whereas from 1997 to 2005, polar bears were observed on barrier islands or along the mainland coast near Kaktovik. The changes in polar bear distribution and habitat association appear to reflect a behavioral response by polar bears to changes in ice (type and percent cover) and in the timing of ice formation and ablation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".