ADULT SURVIVAL ESTIMATES FROM TWO ATLANTIC PUFFIN (FRATERCULA ARCTICA) COLONIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We report survival probabilities for 148 breeding adult Atlantic Puffins (Fratercula arctica) monitored through capture-mark-resight at two colonies for 11 years (1992–2003). The colonies, Eastern Egg Rock and Seal Island, are ∼42 km apart in the Gulf of Maine. Support for competing models in the program MARK suggests constant survival of 0.95 ± 0.01 (SE) that is independent of colony. Our high survival probability is consistent with published estimates for Atlantic Puffins and other long-lived seabirds. No time-variance contrasts with many long-term seabird studies, which often report high survival in most years, broken occasionally by low-survival events. However, a post-hoc observation of survival estimates from the time-dependent model suggests that there may have been at least two low-survival events in our time-series; sparse data may have precluded detection by our models. In this study, each bird received an individually engraved, plastic, field-readable leg band, as well as the standard metal band. Using an index of band readability, we show that plastic bands wore rapidly, resulting in accumulating losses of engraved characters through time. Degradation and loss of marks is a common source of overdispersion in capture-mark-re-encounter data and results in underestimated sampling variances. In the presence of a 70% reduction in band readability over eight years, an estimate of the adjusted overdispersion factor (ĉ = 1.14) identified very little overdispersion in our data. Overdispersion was avoided by double banding and intensively resighting metal bands. Estimation de la Survie Adulte de Deux Colonies de Fratercula arctica dans le Golfe du Maine
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".