Evolutionary rescue can maintain an oscillating community undergoing environmental change
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The persistence of ecological communities is challenged by widespread and rapid environmental change. In many cases, persistence may not be assured via physiological acclimation or migration and so species must adapt rapidly in situ. This process of evolutionary rescue (ER) occurs when genetic adaptation allows a population to recover from decline initiated by environmental change that would otherwise cause extirpation. Community evolutionary rescue (CER) occurs when one or more species undergo a rapid evolutionary response to environmental change, resulting in the recovery of the ancestral community. Here, we study the dynamics of CER within a three-species community coexisting by virtue of resource oscillations brought about by nonlinear interactions between two species competing for a live resource. We allowed gradual environmental change to affect the traits that determine the strength and symmetry of the interaction among species. By allowing the component species to evolve rapidly, we found that: (i) trait evolution can allow CER and ensure the community persists by preventing competitive exclusion during environmental change, (ii) CER brings about a change in the character of the oscillations (period, amplitude) governing coexistence before and after environmental change, and (iii) CER may depend on evolutionary change that occurs simultaneously with or subsequently to environmental change. We were able to show that a change in the character of community oscillations may be a signature that a community is undergoing ER. Our study extends the theory on ER to a world of nonlinear community dynamics where-despite high-frequency changes of population abundances-adaptive evolutionary trait change can be gradual and directional, and therefore contribute to community rescue. ER may happen in real, complex communities that fluctuate owing to a mix of external and internal forces. Experiments testing this theory are now required to validate our predictions.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it