Hemispheric‐scale patterns of climate‐related shifts in planktonic diatoms from North American and European lakes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract A synthesis of over 200 diatom‐based paleolimnological records from nonacidified/nonenriched lakes reveals remarkably similar taxon‐specific shifts across the Northern Hemisphere since the 19th century. Our data indicate that these diatom shifts occurred in conjunction with changes in freshwater habitat structure and quality, which, in turn, we link to hemispheric warming trends. Significant increases in the relative abundances of planktonic Cyclotella taxa ( P <0.01) were concurrent with sharp declines in both heavily silicified Aulacoseira taxa ( P <0.01) and benthic Fragilaria taxa ( P <0.01). We demonstrate that this trend is not limited to Arctic and alpine environments, but that lakes at temperate latitudes are now showing similar ecological changes. As expected, the onset of biological responses to warming occurred significantly earlier ( P <0.05) in climatically sensitive Arctic regions (median age= ad 1870) compared with temperate regions (median age= ad 1970). In a detailed paleolimnological case study, we report strong relationships ( P <0.005) between sedimentary diatom data from Whitefish Bay, Lake of the Woods (Ontario, Canada), and long‐term changes in air temperature and ice‐out records. Other potential environmental factors, such as atmospheric nitrogen deposition, could not explain our observations. These data provide clear evidence that unparalleled warming over the last few decades resulted in substantial increases in the length of the ice‐free period that, similar to 19th century changes in high‐latitude lakes, likely triggered a reorganization of diatom community composition. We show that many nonacidified, nutrient‐poor, freshwater ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere have crossed important climatically induced ecological thresholds. These findings are worrisome, as the ecological changes that we report at both mid‐ and high‐latitude sites have occurred with increases in mean annual air temperature that are less than half of what is projected for these regions over the next half century.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".