AN INCIDENCE-BASED RICHNESS ESTIMATOR FOR QUADRATS SAMPLED WITHOUT REPLACEMENT
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Most richness estimators currently in use are derived from models that consider sampling with replacement or from the assumption of infinite populations. Neither of the assumptions is suitable for sampling sessile organisms such as plants where quadrats are often sampled without replacement and the area of study is always limited. In this paper, we propose an incidence-based parametric richness estimator that considers quadrat sampling without replacement in a fixed area. The estimator is derived from a zero-truncated binomial distribution for the number of quadrats containing a given species (e.g., species i) and a modified beta distribution for the probability of presence-absence of a species in a quadrat. The maximum likelihood estimate of richness is explicitly given and can be easily solved. The variance of the estimate is also obtained. The performance of the estimator is tested against nine other existing incidence-based estimators using two tree data sets where the true numbers of species are known. Results show that the new estimator is insensitive to sample size and outperforms the other methods as judged by the root mean squared errors. The superiority of the new method is particularly noticeable when large quadrat size is used, suggesting that a few large quadrats are preferred over many small ones when sampling diversity.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it