A Statistical Model to Estimate an Upper Bound on the Probability of Failure of a System Installed on an Irradiated Vehicle
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper presents a risk assessment model suitable for predicting an upper bound on the probability of failure of an electronic system installed inside a vehicle that is irradiated externally or internally. Only limited information on the immunity of the device and associated cabling is required. As an example, the model is used to demonstrate an upper bound on the probability of failure of a system due to irradiation from digital audio broadcast transmitters in the U.K. The failure probability is found to be highly dependent on the clearance distance above the vehicle chassis of wire looms attached to the system, and to the accuracy with which the electric field is measured during an immunity test for the system/cable combination. The failure probability predicted by the risk assessment model is consistent with common observations of a log-normal distribution in the terminating power of receiving cables inside an irradiated vehicle or reverberation chamber.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it