Transfer of Risk in Emerging Eastern European Stock Markets: A Sectoral Perspective
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper studies the market integration of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic by utilizing the multivariate GARCH analysis of Engle and Kroner (1995) for which a BEKK representation is adopted. We investigate the transmission of the US subprime crisis across Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic in a sectoral setting. In addition, we attempt to identify whether the three emerging Eastern European countries have become more integrated after their EU accessions in 2004, in a regional setting. Our results clearly indicate the existence of direct linkages between different stock market sectors with respect to returns and volatilities. We found that the transmission of equity shocks between markets has increased after the EU accession in 2004. Notably, the intra-industry contagion in emerging Europe has increased after this accession. Our findings have significant implications for asset pricing and portfolio selection for international financial institutions and financial managers.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".