Modelling Monetary Union in <scp>S</scp>outhern <scp>A</scp>frica: Welfare Evaluation for the <scp>CMA</scp> and <scp>SADC</scp>
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This paper proposes a quantitative assessment of the welfare effects arising from the C ommon M onetary A rea ( CMA ) and an array of broader groupings among S outhern A frican D evelopment C ommunity ( SADC ) countries. Model simulations suggest that ( i ) participating in the CMA benefits all members; ( ii ) joining the CMA individually is beneficial for all SADC members except A ngola, M auritius and T anzania; ( iii ) creating a symmetric CMA ‐wide monetary union with a regional central bank carries some costs in terms of foregone anti‐inflationary credibility; and ( iv ) SADC ‐wide symmetric monetary union continues to be beneficial for all except M auritius, although the gains for existing CMA members are likely to be limited.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it