Microstructure Models with Short-Term Inertia and Stochastic Volatility
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Partially observed microstructure models, containing stochastic volatility, dynamic trading noise, and short-term inertia, are introduced to address the following questions: (1) Do the observed prices exhibit statistically significant inertia? (2) Is stochastic volatility (SV) still evident in the presence of dynamical trading noise? (3) If stochastic volatility and trading noise are present, which SV model matches the observed price data best? Bayes factor methods are used to answer these questions with real data and this allows us to consider volatility models with very different structures. Nonlinear filtering techniques are utilized to compute the Bayes factor on tick-by-tick data and to estimate the unknown parameters. It is shown that our price data sets all exhibit strong evidence of both inertia and Heston-type stochastic volatility.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it