Are Patients With Depression at Heightened Risk of Suicide as They Begin to Recover?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
It has long been taught and believed that patients with depression and suicidal tendencies are at heightened risk of suicide as they begin to recover and their energy and motivation return. What are the data behind this enduring belief? More than a century ago, eminent clinicians noted that some patients with depression committed suicide just as their depression seemed to be improving. The clinicians went on to warn that early recovery carries a high risk of suicide. Although no studies have tracked suicide along with symptomatic change in depression, recent large-scale studies of suicide and phase of treatment do not indicate that suicide is more likely to occur early in recovery than at other times. Our forebears helpfully pointed out that patients with depression may commit suicide as they are beginning to recover. But the idea that these patients are at particular risk of suicide at this time, intuitively plausible as it is, remains to be substantiated.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".