Current and predicted prevalence of obesity in Canada: a trend analysis
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The prevalence of obesity has increased over the past 3 decades, with a disproportionate growth in excessive weight categories (body mass index [BMI] 35.0-39.9 and BMI ≥ 40.0). The objective of this paper is to present the data for the past and current prevalence of adult obesity in Canada, together with future estimates. METHODS: We calculated BMIs for adults aged 18 years and older who were not in long-term care using data from Canadian health surveys administered between 1985 and 2011. Calculation of the BMIs was based on self-reported heights and weights. The weight categories were as follows: normal (BMI 18.5-24.9), overweight (25.0-29.9), obese class I (30.0-34.9), obese class II (35.0-39.9) and obese class III (≥ 40.0). Outcome measures were prevalence of adult obesity according to BMI categories, nationally and provincially. We used regression analysis models to predict future prevalence of adult obesity up to 2019. RESULTS: Between 1985 and 2011, the prevalence of adult obesity in Canada increased from 6.1% to 18.3%. Furthermore, since 1985, the prevalence of obesity in classes I, II and III increased from 5.1% to 13.1%, from 0.8% to 3.6%, and from 0.3% to 1.6%, respectively. Taking into account regional variations, we predict that, by 2019, the prevalence of obesity in classes I, II and III will increase to 14.8%, 4.4% and 2.0%, respectively, and that half of the Canadian provinces will have more overweight or obese adults than normal-weight adults. INTERPRETATION: We found significant increases in the excessive weight categories of obesity, with continued increases predicted for all provinces up to 2019. Provincial variations in obesity prevalence were also significant. To address these projected increases and any subsequent burden on the health care system, a concerted effort must be made by the provinces to focus on the prevention, management and treatment of obesity in Canada.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it