Rapid genetic change underpins antagonistic coevolution in a natural host‐pathogen metapopulation
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Antagonistic coevolution is a critical force driving the evolution of diversity, yet the selective processes underpinning reciprocal adaptive changes in nature are not well understood. Local adaptation studies demonstrate partner impacts on fitness and adaptive change, but do not directly expose genetic processes predicted by theory. Specifically, we have little knowledge of the relative importance of fluctuating selection vs. arms-race dynamics in maintaining polymorphism in natural systems where metapopulation processes predominate. We conducted cross-year epidemiological, infection and genetic studies of multiple wild host and pathogen populations in the Linum-Melampsora association. We observed asynchronous phenotypic fluctuations in resistance and infectivity among demes. Importantly, changes in allelic frequencies at pathogen infectivity loci, and in host recognition of these genetic variants, correlated with disease prevalence during natural epidemics. These data strongly support reciprocal coevolution maintaining balanced resistance and infectivity polymorphisms, and highlight the importance of characterising spatial and temporal dynamics in antagonistic interactions.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it