Sustained exponential population growth of grey seals at Sable Island, Nova Scotia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Grey seal pup production on Sable Island, Nova Scotia, has been monitored since the early 1960s. We estimated pup production on Sable Island in 1997 using aerial photography with a correction for detection of pups on the imagery and a statistical model to account for the proportion of pups not born at the time of the survey. A total of 20 863 pups were counted on the colour positives. When corrected for the proportion of pups seen on the imagery (0.96) and the proportion of pups born before the survey (east colony 0.94, west colony 0.66), estimated total pup production was 25 400 with approximate 95% confidence limits of 23 500 and 26 900. The 1997 estimate indicates that pup production in this population, now the largest grey seal colony in the world, has been increasing exponentially at an annual rate of 12.8% for four decades in the face of considerable environmental variability.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".