Estimating the long term impact of kidney donation on life expectancy and end stage renal disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Long term studies of live kidney donation do not show evidence of appreciable risks to the donor. However nephrectomy reduces total glomerular filtration rates (GFR) and is associated with increased rates of proteinuria and possibly hypertension. It is not clear to what extent these changes are associated with reduced life expectancy (LE) or increased risk of end stage renal disease (ESRD) since follow up is incomplete in most reports. METHODS: In a computer simulation model based on a US population chronic kidney disease model, increased hazard rates for higher blood pressure, proteinuria and low GFR were applied to healthy individuals undergoing donor nephrectomy. Subsequent LE and cumulative risk of ESRD were calculated. RESULTS: Kidney donation is projected to reduce LE by 0.83 years and increase the absolute cumulative risk of ESRD by 0.89% for a 40-year-old white male. White females were predicted to have slightly greater loss of life and less added ESRD risk. Conversely, Blacks have greater risks of ESRD after donation. Older donors with hypertension were predicted to lose less life years and lower cumulative ESRD risks than young donors. Despite these increased risks most donors will have better life expectancy and lower ESRD rates than the general population since they are a highly selected cohort. CONCLUSIONS: This study attempts to quantify increases in death and ESRD from donor nephrectomy assuming the risk factors of hypertension, low GFR and proteinuria have the same significance in this population as in the general population. Further study is required to better estimate the risks of donation and test whether these assumptions are valid.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".