Future Projections of Landfast Ice Thickness and Duration in the Canadian Arctic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Projections of future landfast ice thickness and duration were generated for nine sites in the Canadian Arctic and one site on the Labrador coast with a simple downscaling technique that used a one-dimensional sea ice model driven by observationally based forcing and superimposed projected future climate change from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global climate model (CGCM2). For the Canadian Arctic sites the downscaling approach indicated a decrease in maximum ice thickness of 30 and 50 cm and a reduction in ice cover duration of 1 and 2 months by 2041–60 and 2081–2100, respectively. In contrast, there is a slight increase in simulated landfast ice thickness and duration at Cartwright in the future due to its sensitivity to snow–ice formation with increased snowfall and to a projected slight cooling over this site (along the Labrador coast) by CGCM2. The magnitude of simulated changes in freeze-up and break-up date was largest for freeze up (e.g., 52 days later at Alert by 2081–2100), and freeze-up date changes exhibited much greater regional variability than break up, which was simulated to be 30 days earlier by 2081–2100 over the Canadian Arctic sites.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".