Inflation and the Business Cycle: Further Investigations after the last Cycle
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Cette étude propose d’analyser les relations entre l’inflation et les fluctuations économiques après vingt ans de politique anti-inflationniste. L’analyse empirique, qui repose sur un calcul de corrélations, s’intéresse aux effets stabilisateurs de l’inflation et des prix ainsi qu’à l’évolution jointe entre l’inflation et l’activité économique. Il apparaît qu’un faible niveau d’inflation a un effet stabilisateur mitigé sur l’activité : positif aux Etats-Unis, au Royaume-Uni et au Japon et négatif en France, en Allemagne et au Canada. Par contre, la stabilisation de l’inflation a un effet nettement plus stabilisateur. Il ressort aussi très clairement de l’étude que les prix ont un comportement contracyclique alors que l’inflation est procyclique. Tous ces résultats sont vérifiés au cours des différents cycles (après 1965) et ne présentent pas de ruptures récentes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".