The Savings Rate Debate: Does the Dependency Hypothesis Hold for Australia and Canada?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Australia and Canada have both experienced a long‐run increase in aggregate savings rates over the past century from below 10 per cent to rates exceeding 20 per cent. Two recent studies have concluded that demographic change played the predominant role in driving this long‐run trend for both nations, one of which implies that a declining child dependency burden caused savings rates to increase over time. New results obtained by using a cointegration approach show that savings rates were driven by increases in real income in the long run. In the short run, increases in the working‐age population in Canada increased the savings rate. In Australia, baby booms and busts occurred simultaneously with savings booms and busts. Contrary to recent work, there is no significant evidence to support a child dependency burden on savings for Australia or Canada over the last century.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.037 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".