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Record W2163330796 · doi:10.1017/s1365100501019010

INTRODUCTION TO THE SPECIAL ISSUE: NEW APPROACHES TO LEARNING IN MACROECONOMIC MODELS

2001· article· en· W2163330796 on OpenAlex
Jasmina Arifovic, James B. Bullard

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueMacroeconomic Dynamics · 2001
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicMonetary Policy and Economic Impact
Canadian institutionsSimon Fraser University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsLearnabilityRational expectationsEconomicsConvergence (economics)Stability (learning theory)Mathematical economicsOutcome (game theory)Order (exchange)Set (abstract data type)Equilibrium selectionProcess (computing)EconometricsComputer scienceMacroeconomicsArtificial intelligenceRepeated gameGame theoryMachine learning

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The research questions addressed by the literature on learning in macroeconomics can be classified into four categories: First, there are issues related to the convergence and stability under learning in models with unique rational expectations equilibria. Authors here are concerned mainly with the learnability of a rational expectations equilibrium, as a measure of that equilibrium's plausibility as an observed outcome in an actual economy. Second, there are issues related to convergence and stability under learning in models with multiple rational expectations equilibria. In this case, learnability serves as an equilibrium selection device, helping economists decide which equilibria are the more likely to be actually observed among the many that exist under rational expectations. A third set of issues involves the examination of transitional dynamics that accompanies the equilibrium selection process. Following some type of unexpected strcutural change or change in policy regime, for instance, economies necessarily must follow temporary transitional paths to a rational expectations equilibrium associated with the new reality. Learning is sometimes used to help model such transitional dynamics. Finally, there are issues related to the examination of learning dynamics that are intrinsically different, even asymptotically, from the dynamics of the rational expectations versions of the models. In these cases, the learning dynamics do not converge to the rational expectations fixed points, and (unexploitable) expectational errors persist indefinitely. Some authors have tried to make use of this possibility in order to build explanations of otherwise puzzling macroeconomic phenomena based on constantly changing expectations.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.485
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.015

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.083
GPT teacher head0.216
Teacher spread0.134 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it