Spatially correlated rainfall in a protective irrigation system
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Allowing water to be traded in an irrigation system with de facto riparian rights can increase the efficiency of water use. With irrigation supplementing uncertain rainfall, both supply and demand for water are uncertain. When rainfall events are positively correlated, water supply and demand movements are negatively correlated, causing large price fluctuations. Using a stylized two crop, two region irrigation system, numerical integration over a bivariate rainfall distribution is used to demonstrate the impact of varying rainfall correlation on water price, expected returns, and return variability. A spot market for water captures the majority of the returns to water rights transfers, relative to a complete market. This spot market results in higher returns and reduced return volatility for farmers in the water deficit region, while farmers in the water surplus region see greater returns but also greater return volatility.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it