Alaskan Permafrost Groundwater Storage Changes Derived from GRACE and Ground Measurements
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Arctic is in transition from climate-driven thawing of permafrost. We investigate satellite-derived water equivalent mass changes, snow water equivalent with in situ measurements of runoff and ground-survey derived geoid models from 1999 through 2009. The Alaskan Arctic coastal plain groundwater storage (including wetland bog, thaw pond and lake) is increasing by 1.15 ± 0.65 km3/a (area-average 1.10 ± 0.62 cm/a), and Yukon River watershed groundwater storage is decreasing by 7.44 ± 3.76 km3/a (area‑average 0.79 ± 0.40 cm/a). Geoid changes show increases within the Arctic coastal region and decreases within the Yukon River watershed. We hypothesize these changes are linked to the development of new predominately closed- and possibly open-talik in the continuous permafrost zone under large thaw lakes with increases of lakes and new predominately open-talik and reduction of permafrost extent in the discontinuous and sporadic zones with decreases of thaw lakes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".