Projections of Future Soil Temperature and Water Content for Three Southern Quebec Forested Sites
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The impacts of climate change on future soil temperature Ts and soil moisture Ms of northern forests are uncertain. In this study, the authors first calibrated Ts and Ms models [Forest Soil Temperature Model (ForSTeM) and Forest Hydrology Model (ForHyM), respectively] using long-term observations of Ts and Ms at different depths measured at three forest sites in eastern Canada. The two models were then used to project Ts and Ms for the period 1971–2100 using historical and future climate scenarios generated by one regional and five global climate models. Results indicate good model performance by ForSTeM and ForHyM in predicting observed Ts and Ms values at various depths for the three sites. Projected annual-mean Ts at these sites increased between 1.1° and 1.9°C and between 1.9° and 3.3°C from the present 30-yr averages (1971–2000) to the periods 2040–69 and 2070–99, respectively. Increases as high as 5.0°C were projected at the black spruce site during the growing season (June) for the period 2070–99. Changes in annual-mean Ms were relatively small; however, seasonally Ms is projected to increase in April, because of earlier snowmelt, and to decrease during the growing season, mainly because of higher evapotranspiration rates. Soil moisture in the growing season could be reduced by 20%–40% for the period 2070–99 compared to the reference period. The projected warmer and drier soil conditions in the growing season could have significant impacts on forests growth and biogeochemical cycles.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".