Null Models of Geographic Range Size Evolution Reaffirm Its Heritability
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Most models of allopatric speciation predict that the two daughter species will have range sizes different from each other's and potentially from that of their common ancestor. However, I find that this difference is less than that expected under a variety of null models of range evolution. Sister species' range values may therefore become more similar in the time following speciation. Greater-than-expected similarity (symmetry) has also been treated as a form of range size heritability. I therefore compare the results of this symmetry approach to a test for phylogenetic signal, using the range sizes of North American birds. I find that range size is heritable under both tests. I suggest that null models for range size heritability should be informed by an explicit model of evolution. Comparative methods may give erroneous results if they fail to take the unusual form of inheritance of range size into account.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it