Lake-Effect Snowstorms over Southern Ontario, Canada, and Their Associated Synoptic-Scale Environment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Lake-effect snowstorms are an important source of severe winter weather over the Great Lakes region and are often triggered by the passage of synoptic-scale low pressure systems. In this paper, a climatology of lake-effect snowstorms over southern Ontario, Canada, for the period 1992–99 is developed. The distinguishing characteristics of the synoptic-scale environment associated with intense lake-effect snowstorms in the region are identified through the study of individual events and through composite analysis. In particular, it is found that a low pressure and a cold-temperature anomaly situated over Hudson Bay, north of the Great Lakes, is a favorable environment for the development of intense lake-effect snowstorms over southern Ontario. It is also found that the track of the low pressure system can have a significant impact on the development or lack thereof of lake-effect snowstorms over southern Ontario. It is found that the low pressure systems that trigger intense lake-effect snowstorms tend to have an anomalous northeastward track as compared to the eastward track of most low pressure systems that transit the region.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".