Optimal Modeling and Filtering of Stochastic Time Series for Geoscience Applications
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Sequences of observations or measurements are often modeled as realizations of stochastic processes with some stationary properties in the first and second moments. However in practice, the noise biases and variances are likely to be different for different epochs in time or regions in space, and hence such stationarity assumptions are often questionable. In the case of strict stationarity with equally spaced data, the Wiener-Hopf equations can readily be solved with fast Fourier transforms (FFTs) with optimal computational efficiency. In more general contexts, covariance matrices can also be diagonalized using the Karhunen-Loève transforms (KLTs), or more generally using empirical orthogonal and biorthogonal expansions, which are unfortunately much more demanding in terms of computational efforts. In cases with increment stationarity, the mathematical modeling can be modified and generalized covariances can be used with some computational advantages. The general nonlinear solution methodology is also briefly overviewed with the practical limitations. These different formulations are discussed with special emphasis on the spectral properties of covariance matrices and illustrated with some numerical examples. General recommendations are included for practical geoscience applications.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it