Constrained mixture estimation for analysis and robust classification of clinical time series
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
MOTIVATION: Personalized medicine based on molecular aspects of diseases, such as gene expression profiling, has become increasingly popular. However, one faces multiple challenges when analyzing clinical gene expression data; most of the well-known theoretical issues such as high dimension of feature spaces versus few examples, noise and missing data apply. Special care is needed when designing classification procedures that support personalized diagnosis and choice of treatment. Here, we particularly focus on classification of interferon-beta (IFNbeta) treatment response in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) patients which has attracted substantial attention in the recent past. Half of the patients remain unaffected by IFNbeta treatment, which is still the standard. For them the treatment should be timely ceased to mitigate the side effects. RESULTS: We propose constrained estimation of mixtures of hidden Markov models as a methodology to classify patient response to IFNbeta treatment. The advantages of our approach are that it takes the temporal nature of the data into account and its robustness with respect to noise, missing data and mislabeled samples. Moreover, mixture estimation enables to explore the presence of response sub-groups of patients on the transcriptional level. We clearly outperformed all prior approaches in terms of prediction accuracy, raising it, for the first time, >90%. Additionally, we were able to identify potentially mislabeled samples and to sub-divide the good responders into two sub-groups that exhibited different transcriptional response programs. This is supported by recent findings on MS pathology and therefore may raise interesting clinical follow-up questions. AVAILABILITY: The method is implemented in the GQL framework and is available at http://www.ghmm.org/gql. Datasets are available at http://www.cin.ufpe.br/ approximately igcf/MSConst. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it