On Efficient Tuning of LS-SVM Hyper-Parameters in Short-Term Load Forecasting: A Comparative Study
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Power load forecasting is essential in the task scheduling of every electricity production and distribution facility. This paper studies the application of a variety of tuning techniques for optimizing the least squares support vector machines (LS-SVM) hyper-parameters in a short-term load forecasting problem. Clearly, the construction of any effective and accurate LS-SVM model depends on carefully setting the associated hyper-parameters. As a result, available optimization techniques including genetic algorithms (GA), simulated annealing (SA), Bayesian evidence framework and cross validation (CV) are applied and then compared for performance time, accuracy and computational cost. As a measure of effectiveness, the introduced algorithms are trained and tested on historical data obtained from Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) for the Canadian city, Toronto. Experimental results show that optimized LS-SVM by Bayesian framework can achieve greater accuracy and faster speed than other techniques including LS- SVM tuned with genetic algorithm, simulated annealing and 10- fold cross validation.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it