Bibliographic record
Abstract
Dr. Simos is Director of Forecasting at e-forecasting.com, a division of Infometrica's Data Center, 65 Newmarket Road, Durham, NH 03824, U.S.A., www.infometrica.com, eosimos@e-forecasting.com. This report does not purport to be a complete description of global economic conditions and financial markets. Neither the Journal nor Infometrica, Inc. guarantee the accuracy of the projections, nor do they warrant in any way that the use of information or data appearing herein will enhance operational or investment performance of individuals or companies who use it. The views presented here are those of the author, and in no way represent the views, analysis, or models of Infometrica, Inc. and any organization that the author may be associated with.I. GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOKThe mix and size of fiscal and monetary stimuli implemented at the start and during the three-year old global recovery resulted in uneven economic growth patterns around the globe. The common policy theme was short-term excessive doses of spending and/or printing money. Housing and financial bubbles were replaced by debt and commodity price bubbles. Insolvent companies were replaced by insolvent governments, and unemployment rates were increasing instead of falling.International trade and financial markets have linked country policies around the world, resulting in an inevitable market correction of private and government excesses. Advanced, emerging, developing, or oil-producing countries have begun to converge on a global stagnation path this year. Fiscal consolidation replaces fiscal booms and monetary policy - following the discovery of the liquidity trap - which de-emphasizes the process of dropping newly printed money from helicopters to areas with signs, such as junk bonds and junk insurers and factories. Renaming transitory injection of money to failed enterprises as quantitative easing (QE) does not guarantee long-term economic success. QE is dead as an effective long-term policy tool.Preliminary data on the first quarter show that the combined output of the Euro Area leveled off, following a decline of 1.2% in the last quarter of 201 1 . In the United Kingdom, real output contracted for the second consecutive quarter by 0.3% and in the United States growth decelerated to 2.2% from 3% in the last quarter of 2011.Economic growth continues to decelerate from 5% in 2010 to 3.8% in 2011, and it is expected to hit 2.8% in 2012 (see Table 1). Solid fundamentals driven by market adjustments will produce a moderate long-lived recovery during 201 3-1 4. We forecast the global economy to grow by 3.3% in 2013 and 3.8% in 2014.II. SHORT-TERM INDICATORS AND FORECASTSThe baseline forecast incorporates major findings of the World Economic Survey conducted by the German Ifo Institute and the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce conducted in the second quarter of 2012. About 1,100 executives fro m 121 countries have indicated that the world's economic climate improved slightly in the second quarter of 2012 driven by positive assessments about the future situation. The major findings of the second quarter's survey are as follows:* Worldwide, executives evaluated the current economic situation, second quarter of 2012, to be nearly stagnant with overall business conditions at satisfactory levels. They found economic activity in their countries to be about the same as in the second quarter of 201 1 . Most important, regarding the future, executives expect economic conditions at the end of 2012 to be above those prevailing in the second quarter of 201 2.* On a regional basis, North American executives assessed the current economic situation to be below satisfactory levels but better than a year ago. Looking forward, business experts from the United States and Canada expect economic conditions to get better in the next six months. In Asia, executives appraised the current economic situation to be below satisfactory levels and worse than a year ago; they were slightly optimistic about the future, expecting economic activity in the next six months to be higher than in the second quarter of 2012. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".