Interannual changes of total ozone and northern hemisphere circulation patterns
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Linear regression accounting for the quasi‐biennial oscillation, the 11‐year solar cycle, stratospheric volcanic aerosol loading, and a long‐term trend, accounts for 53% of the interannual ozone variance observed in February at Hohenpeissenberg (48°N, 11°E). When tropospheric circulation patterns are added to the regression, a substantially larger fraction (81%) of the observed total ozone variance can be described. The Polar Eurasia circulation pattern, negative anomalies of tropospheric geopotential height over Greenland and Arctic Canada coupled to opposite anomalies over Central Europe and North‐Eastern China, is essential in accounting for interannual variations of February total ozone at Hohenpeissenberg. A large part (≈ 25%) of the February long‐term ozone decline at Hohenpeissenberg appears to be related to a more frequent positive phase of this pattern. Circulation could influence ozone directly through transport, or indirectly enhance Arctic chemical ozone depletion through cold temperatures. Since climate change in the northern hemisphere winter manifests itself in a pattern very similar to the Polar Eurasia pattern, this study gives a strong indication that climate change might affect the stratospheric ozone layer.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".