Understanding the nature and threats of drug trafficking to national and regional security in West Africa1
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
<p class="p1">Several West African states are threatened by increasingly powerful transnational organised criminal networks. Yet, scholarly work on the nature, characteristics and strength of these groups and how their activities threaten states remains sparse, leading to misunderstandings and inadequate appreciation of the precise nature of the threats they pose to West Africa. This paper seeks to fill these lacunae in our knowledge. It focuses on the nexus between drugs, crime and terrorism. It argues that, the financial spin-offs from criminal activities contribute to the development of opportunistic relationships between criminals and extremist groups that threatens West Africa’s fragile states. The analyses are based on evidence from several West African states, but employ the ongoing crisis in the Sahel, particularly Mali, as an empirical case, to demonstrate how ‘profitable collusion’ among different actors permits hollow states to become edifices that allows corruption, criminality and impunity to flourish.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it