Airtanker initial attack: a spreadsheet-based modeling procedure
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Airtankers are widely employed in wildland fire control operations. This paper presents a spreadsheet procedure for modeling airtanker initial-attack performance within a protection region. Easily written and modified, this spreadsheet-based model provides the user with substantial flexibility when specifying the spatial distribution of fire occurrence within the initial-attack zone of an airtanker base. Once this spatial distribution has been specified, the expected flight distance from the airtanker base to a random fire ignition point as well as higher moments of the flight distance distribution are readily computed and applied using the spreadsheet. The chief advantages of this spreadsheet approach are described. Calculation procedures and potential applications of flight distance moments including the optimization of airbase location are illustrated. Detailed numerical examples and opportunities for future development are indicated.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it