Abrupt climate change and variability in the past four millennia of the southern Vancouver Island, Canada
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The identification of past climatic extremes and norms is important for a better understanding of the climate systems and the way they change. Here we present an almost continuous tree‐ring and climate record from Vancouver Island, Canada for the last four millennia from Douglas‐fir trees ( Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. menziesii ) that are sensitive to precipitation variation. Spring droughts more severe than that of the mid‐1920s occurred in the late 1840s, mid‐1460s AD, and ∼ mid‐1860s BC. A remarkable climatic anomaly occurred in ∼ the 19th century BC during which strong pentadecadal oscillation prevailed and radial growth decreased by 71% in four years. This event could have been the final stage in the process of climatic and environmental transition beginning 2–3 centuries earlier that led to major cultural transformation in regions sensitive to climate change.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it