Nouvelles perspectives démographiques, mêmes défis budgétaires
Bibliographic record
Abstract
L’Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ) a publié en juillet 2009 de nouvelles projections démographiques de la population québécoise. Or, sur la base des précédentes perspectives démographiques, nous avons, en 2007, tracé l’évolution des finances publiques du Québec d’ici 2051 en obtenant comme principal résultat que le rapide vieillissement de la population québécoise conduirait le gouvernement du Québec à l’impasse financière. Après avoir exposé les principaux changements découlant des nouvelles perspectives démographiques, la présente note de recherche mesure si ces nouvelles perspectives modifient sensiblement les résultats obtenus lors de la projection des finances publiques de 2007. Notre réponse à cette question est négative. Les nouvelles perspectives démographiques ne changent en rien nos perspectives budgétaires, laissant présager d’importantes difficultés financières.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.011 | 0.023 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.010 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.007 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.009 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".